NBA MVP Race Tightens as Gilgeous-Alexander, Jokic Face Ineligibility Risk
The competition for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award has intensified, but the campaigns of leading contenders Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets are now threatened by a new league rule concerning player availability.
New Rule Creates Uncertainty
The NBA now requires players to participate in at least 65 games to be eligible for postseason awards, including MVP. This rule, implemented to discourage load management
, has put both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic in a precarious position.
As of Wednesday, Gilgeous-Alexander, the current betting favorite at -125 (DraftKings Sportsbook), has missed 11 games. He needs to play in at least 16 of the remaining 22 regular-season games to maintain his eligibility for a second consecutive MVP award. Jokic, listed at +310 (DraftKings Sportsbook), has already missed 16 games and can afford to miss only two more.
“The introduction of the minimum games requirement was designed to reduce ‘load management’. The goal is to reward availability and protect the competitiveness of the regular season.”
Dunkest.com
Cunningham’s Rising Odds
The uncertainty surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic has led to increased betting activity on Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham. Over the past week, Cunningham has attracted more MVP bets at DraftKings Sportsbook than all other players combined, improving his odds from 14-1 to 9-2.
BetMGM sportsbooks have similarly seen more bets placed on Cunningham than any other player throughout the season. Interest has also grown in Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown, whose odds have moved from 10-1 to 40-1.
Other Players in the Mix
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama, despite attracting the most MVP bets on DraftKings, is also nearing the 17-game missed threshold, having already sat out 13 games. BetMGM has also seen increased interest in Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (100-1) and Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (250-1).
Midseason MVP Rankings
An ESPN straw poll of 100 media members conducted last week indicated that Gilgeous-Alexander is the clear frontrunner, if he qualifies.
Frequently Asked Questions
-
What is the new NBA rule for MVP eligibility?
Players must participate in at least 65 games to be eligible for postseason awards, including MVP.
-
How many games has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed?
As of February 27, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has missed 11 games.
-
How many games has Nikola Jokic missed?
Nikola Jokic has missed 16 games as of February 27, 2026.