Verstappen-Norris, who will win the F1 World Championship?

In the last six Grands Prix of the season, Max Verstappen, driving a Red Bull that has been struggling in recent months, will try to resist the comeback attempts of Lando Norris, who has instead had a continuously growing McLaren at his disposal since May. The Dutchman will arrive in Austin with a 52 point lead over the Briton, which he will have to defend tooth and nail. The Woking standard-bearer has a decent gap to fill, but also the best half of the lot to do so. The fight for the World Championship will be a question between the two of them: what will count above all will be their performances and their possible exploits or mistakes. However, when the World Championships are in the sprint, as could happen in this season finale, every detail, even small, can make the difference. From Sprints to fast laps, passing through the role of teammates and other drivers, we are going to analyze the different factors that could be decisive in the fight for the title.

the sprint

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Three of the last 6 Grands Prix of the season will be held in the Sprint format. The “short races” held on Saturdays, in which the single-seaters cover 100 kilometers without having to make pit stops, could play an important role in the challenge for the World Championship. The Sprint victory allows you to gain 8 points in the standings, finish second 7 and thus climb up to eighth position. Therefore, if both Verstappen and Norris were to finish the Sprints in high ranking positions, the points gained or lost by the two would not be very many. At the same time, running three Sprints means having three more starts and in general more dangerous situations, in which you can make mistakes or end up the victim of other people’s mistakes. Translated: in addition to the points that can be earned, it is above all those that can be lost that you must pay attention to. The remaining Sprints will take place in Texas, Brazil and Qatar.

the fast laps

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In traditional Grand Prix, setting the fastest lap allows the drivers to obtain an additional point, provided they finish the race in the top ten. Precisely in the last GP held in Singapore, the best time obtained by Daniel Ricciardo at the end of the race led to some controversy, given that the Australian was a driver for Vcarb, a team of the Red Bull group. In a close fight, even a single point can make the difference. Without forgetting the associated risks: seeking the fastest lap, in fact, also means pushing yourself to the limit and increasing the possibility of making mistakes.

teammates

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Sergio Perez and Oscar Piastri, teammates of Verstappen and Norris respectively, could also have an important role. The Mexican already helped the world champion in 2021, slowing down Lewis Hamilton a lot, with maneuvers at the limit, in the last GP of the season in Abu Dhabi. In recent seasons, however, Checo has struggled a lot not only to keep up with Max’s pace, but also that of his other big team rivals. This could represent a problem for Verstappen, who often finds himself alone against the two McLarens of Norris and Piastri. The latter, however, has not so far made any particular effort in favor of his teammate. The Australian, winner of the Silverstone and Baku GPs, was on average slower than his teammate over the course of the season, but every time he was able to fight, he didn’t hold back, on the contrary. In Hungary and Monza, Piastri did not miss the opportunity to overtake Norris, despite the latter’s chances of challenging for the World title. The performances and choices of Piastri and Perez could therefore influence the season finale of their teammates and their teams. Having two second drivers who are competitive and willing to sacrifice themselves can in fact help teams perfect strategies, tire choices, set-ups, all aspects that are anything but trivial.

the other pilots

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In addition to Red Bull and McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes have also won GPs in 2024, precisely 3 each. The Maranello team and the Brackley team will therefore not sit idle and enjoy the World Championship fight: both will try to achieve further successes and improve. A question of prestige and also of momentum towards 2025, the last year of this cycle before the arrival of the new regulations in 2026. The drivers of the red, Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz, and those of the silver arrows, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell , they could therefore play a role in the world championship challenge, willy-nilly. It will therefore be fundamental for both Norris and above all for Verstappen, who has a less competitive car than his rival, to put these opponents behind them too. One, or rather, four more concerns that should absolutely not be underestimated.