Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will repeat the final in Madrid, a duel that will put the cherry on top of a tournament in which the path of both has been very different. While the world number 1 has exuded confidence, the Belarusian has complied, but with doubts. Will she be able to defeat Iga again or will the Pole manage to get revenge this time?
We are one step away from living the dreamed women’s final in the Mutua Madrid Open 2024. And the two best players in the world will face each other in a new confrontation that will be part of the history of the great rivalry they maintain. Every Swiatek y Aryna Sabalenka for a while now. The Pole will do so as number 1 and after having signed a fairly firm path and in line with her. On the other hand, number 2 arrives with certain doubts that she is managing to avoid, but now she will have to do it no matter what to revalidate the title. And that’s not all, but Madrid will witness how last year’s final is repeated. What will happen this time? Many emotions will be concentrated in a match that will attract all eyes in a tournament in which the women’s team has met expectations.
Analysis of the final of the Mutua Madrid Open 2024
Firstly, and to contextualize this analysis, we need to know the moment in which both players reach the last match of the tournament. We will start with the world number 1, as Swiatek deserves a special mention for his great journey up to this point. And the Polish woman has only lost 1 set against Beatriz Haddad Maia, the player with the highest ranking she has faced in Madrid. In addition, she has signed two donuts and has only let her rivals win 20 games.
These data show the great superiority of an Iga that intends to dominate the earth for many years and as it has been doing in recent times. His objective is very clear: he wants the title and this time he does not want Sabalenka to make the same move on him again. The Pole has felt very comfortable in the Caja Mágica, the public loves her and she is more than motivated to take revenge on a player who is not going through her best moment in terms of results.
And the Belarusian reaches the Madrid final with a totally different dynamic from that of her greatest rival. Except against Mirra Andreeva, Sabalenka has suffered in each of her matches, playing two tie-breaks and dropping a set in all of them except for her match against the young Russian. Results that are far from those she has achieved in other tournaments in which she felt that she was a total steamroller.
Although she has not arrived at her best moment, we should not detract from her, because even if she has shown her best level, Aryna has come very far. In her semifinal against Elena Rybakina it was clear once again that no one beats a fighter, because in such a close match she was able to cling to her tigress mentality and hold on to a burning nail.
– H2H and tactical keys
Before tactically analyzing how this battle may present itself, it is also important to know the face-to-face situation they have. Iga is the one who leads this H2H with 6 victories compared to Sabalenka’s 3, although in recent times we have been able to see that there is no clear winner. And the victories have been interspersed with the last one on land on the Belarusian side. Thus, her last confrontation took place in the WTA Finals last year, taking her to the world number 1.
Now, once the path of both players is known, everything seems to indicate that this year Iga could have many possibilities to take revenge on her rival. Although we have been able to see that the Pole is not unbeatable, facing her on land will always have an extra layer of complexity. Sabalenka’s tactic to have more opportunities will be for Iga herself to get involved with her mistakes. On the other hand, both are very effective on serve and that will be a weapon that they will need to have enough polish and success to master with the first serves. Thus, there will be a real fight to see who dominates who with Aryna having to look for speed in each of her shots.
And the number 2 in the world will look for winning shots to shorten the exchanges and keep Swiatek at bay so that she is forced to defend more than attack. The Belarusian will not want to live in her flesh that Iga with great movement on the court. Her footwork will give her a huge advantage in covering all corners of the court, but something Sabalenka is very capable of answering if she is mentally focused. Therein lies the most abysmal difference. The Belarusian already knows what it’s like to beat Iga on land and in this same tournament, but that may be precisely what puts the most pressure on her along with revalidating the title. On the contrary, the Pole will arrive very motivated to complete one of her best weeks, so the one who best copes with the tension will be the one who takes the title.
Thus, although Swiatek arrives with a little more favoritism, Who will end up being crowned in the Spanish tournament?