As the college football season heats up, BYU faces a golden opportunity next Saturday when they face the Arizona Wildcats. After starting the season with high expectations, Arizona slipped to a 3-2 record, but their performance thus far may not reflect their full potential. With the highly anticipated Big Noon Kickoff set for this game, all attention will be on BYU and it marks one of the most important opportunities for the Cougars in the last five years. Here are five solid reasons why BYU can win.
First of all, Arizona has shown the weakness of their run defense and currently ranks 91st in yards per carry allowed against FBS opponents. An alarming statistic shows that more than 18% of run attempts against them this season resulted in a gain of 10 yards or more. In contrast, BYU’s defense only allowed such gains on more than 12% of runs. While the Cougars’ running attack faces challenges this year, the return of LJ Martin will be crucial. If Martin plays to his potential, BYU’s offense is expected to pick up some significant yards.
Next, we have to talk about the performance of Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita. Despite fans’ optimistic expectations for his breakout game in 2023, he has yet to deliver. His completion rate was 61%, with 7 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. He also has a worrisome 8.3% rate of turnover-worthy plays in play-action games. A major factor in his performance issues is a less potent receiver group compared to last year.
Tetairoa McMillan, one of the best receivers in the country, is a Fifita centre, catching an astonishing 36.6% of all targeted passes despite facing double coverage. If BYU successfully tries to double McMillan, it will force Fifita to make mistakes. It’s worth noting that BYU ranks 13th nationally in forced interceptions and 4th in pass defense efficiency. Neutralizing the dynamic duo of Fifita and McMillan could affect Arizona’s air attack.
In football it is important to take advantage of scoring opportunities. BYU proved this well by outscoring teams like Baylor and Kansas State despite statistical deficiencies. The Cougars were able to convert 5 of their 7 red zone opportunities into touchdowns while limiting opponents to just 3 points from 6 attempts. Remarkably, BYU has been successful in every visit to the red zone against FBS teams this season, scoring touchdowns 13 of 18 times. Conversely, Arizona’s struggles in the red zone are reflected in their ranking of 79th in the nation with 6 touchdowns out of 12 attempts in the red zone, a stark difference that limits their scoring down low. at 23 points per game since Week 1.
Moving to the offensive line, BYU may have an advantage. Arizona allowed pressure on 33% of Noah Fifita’s dropbacks, which contributed to the challenges this season. In contrast, BYU was able to limit pressure on Jake Retzlaff to just 25%, even on 42% of blitz plays. If Retzlaff gets more time in the pocket than Fifita, that could flip BYU’s advantage. In run defense, Arizona ranks 95th in defensive success rate and 90th in offensive success rate While Arizona has a decent group of running backs, BYU could make this matchup even better given the their last healthy running back unit.
In the end, no Big 12 team wants to visit Lavell Edwards Stadium. With BYU announcing its fourth straight sellout since last season and tickets selling out in just 35 minutes, the atmosphere promises to be electric. Combined with a national audience due to the Big Noon Kickoff and the presence of several high-profile recruits, the environment will add to BYU’s energy, making it a difficult task for Arizona when the game lean the way of the Cougars.