Strongest Final Four Since 1985: College Basketball Predictions

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March Madness Reaches Historic Heights: Unprecedented Final Four Fuels Excitement

This year’s Final Four is being hailed as the strongest tournament since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, a sentiment that’s hard to dispute. The sheer calibre of the teams involved – and the way they’ve reached this stage – has created a captivating atmosphere surrounding college basketball’s marquee event.

A Tournament of Firsts

What’s truly remarkable is that this is just the second time in history that all four top-ranked seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Adding to the incredible nature of the tournament is the fact that four of the top 10 teams in KenPom.com’s rankings – a highly respected and comprehensive analytics platform – are competing for the championship. KenPom’s data, dating back to the 1996-97 season, confirms this exceptional status. This tournament has been a little dry, in terms of great games, surprise storylines, upsets and Cinderellas. But that all led to a Final Four that may never be replicated. An all-time great Final Four would be the legacy of this tournament, not the relative disappointment that preceded it.

Team Analysis – Key Matchups and Considerations

Auburn’s Road to the Final Four

Auburn’s presence in the Final Four is a testament to their consistent performance throughout the tournament. They currently rank higher at KenPom than six teams from 1997-2024, a remarkable achievement. However, a key factor to monitor is the health of star center Johni Broome.

He suffered an elbow injury in the Elite Eight win against North Carolina, but returned to the game and appears to be playing through it.

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If Broome is fully recovered and playing at his usual level, Auburn has the potential to be a serious championship contender. However, a drop in his performance could shift the odds in favor of their opponents. It’s worth noting that if Broome isn’t at 100%, Auburn would have been the favorite in 21 of the past 27 tournaments, according to KenPom’s historical odds.

Florida’s Clutch Performances

Florida’s journey to the Final Four has been marked by tense, nail-biting wins against UConn and Texas Tech. Their ability to pull out victories in such dramatic fashion is impressive, but their reliance on late-game heroics raises questions about their consistency.

The Tigers will be looking to exploit Florida’s vulnerabilities in the paint, as the Gators struggled to contain Texas Tech’s interior presence in the Elite Eight.

Duke’s Dominance and the Defensive Challenge

Duke’s arrival at the Final Four is largely expected, considering their dominant performance throughout the tournament. They’ve showcased an incredibly efficient offense, ranking number one according to KenPom.com’s metrics for offensive efficiency, and are only marginally behind Florida and Wisconsin for defenses. While Duke has had vibes of UConn the past two tournaments, UConn didn’t have a matchup as tough as Houston in either of those title runs.

Houston’s Defensive Strength

Facing Duke presents a significant challenge. Houston, the other Final Four entrant, is renowned for its formidable defense, topping KenPom.com’s rankings for defensive efficiency this season.

They stifled Tennessee in the Elite Eight, holding the Volunteers to just 15 points in the first half.

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This matchup will be a clash of titans – an incredibly potent Duke offense against a relentlessly aggressive Houston defense.

Final Four Predictions (Based on BetMGM Odds)

Here’s a look at the betting odds (as of March 24, 2024) from BetMGM:

  • Auburn: +525
  • Duke: +375
  • Houston: +400
  • Florida: +650

(All times Eastern)

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What makes this Final Four so special? This is the strongest Final Four since the NCAA tournament expanded in 1985, featuring four top-10 teams according to KenPom.com.
  • Which teams are the favorites to win the championship? Duke is currently favored based on betting odds, but Houston’s powerful defense poses a significant threat.
  • What are some key injury concerns? Auburn’s Johni Broome is nursing an elbow injury, which could impact their performance.

Did you know? KenPom’s data is widely considered the gold standard in college basketball analytics, providing a sophisticated measure of team efficiency and potential.

Pro Tip: Pay close attention to how teams perform in specific areas – like the paint – as this can significantly impact game outcomes.

Reader Question: Do you think Duke’s efficient offense can overcome Houston’s suffocating defense?

Call to Action: Share your Final Four predictions in the comments below! Don’t forget to subscribe to 247Sports.news for the latest college basketball coverage.

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