The Tightest Race in Over a Decade

Selection Sunday arrives with the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament picture remarkably clear at the top – yet agonizingly difficult to predict. Duke and Michigan stand as co-favorites, separated by the slimmest of margins after a season of compelling college basketball.

“It has been more than a decade since there was such a small difference between college basketball’s best two teams as Selection Sunday beckons,” reports analysis of the tournament contenders.

Metrics, Odds, and On-Court Results All Point to a Dead Heat

The debate over which team holds the edge is fueled by conflicting data. Predictive metrics, like KenPom, give a slight advantage to Duke, listing them as roughly a half-point favorite. However, results-based metrics, such as Wins Above Bubble, favor Michigan. Even the betting markets are split, with both teams listed at +325 by Caesars to win the championship.

If you go by predictive metrics like KenPom, Duke ranks as roughly a half-point favorite over Michigan. If you go by results-based metrics like Wins Above Bubble, Michigan is a smidge ahead of Duke. deadspin.com

Adding another layer to the intrigue, Duke edged Michigan 68-63 in a closely contested matchup on February 21st, a game where neither team led by more than eight points.

A Potential Championship Collision

The possibility of Duke and Michigan meeting in the championship game is not just a fan’s dream; it’s a realistic scenario. If the bracket unfolds as expected, these two powerhouses could be on an inexorable collision course from opposite sides of the bracket.

The last time the top two teams were so closely matched was in 2014, a tournament that ultimately saw an unexpected champion crowned – Connecticut, an 18th-ranked, No. 7 seed.

Lessons from 2014 and the Miami (Ohio) Conundrum

The 2014 tournament similarly highlighted the challenges of evaluating mid-major programs. Wichita State entered as a No. 1 seed with a perfect record but was upset in the second round. This year, Miami (Ohio) presents a similar dilemma, finishing the season 31-1 but with a schedule lacking high-quality opponents.

The committee faces a difficult decision regarding Miami (Ohio): should they receive a high seed, be relegated to the First Four, or be excluded from the tournament altogether?

Do they deserve the worst at-large seed, which is usually a 12? Does the committee force them into the First Four with an 11 seed, which would inadvertently punish their opponent as Miami’s Millett Hall is just 40.4 miles from University of Dayton Arena? deadspin.com

Selection Sunday Projections

Current projections indicate the following top seeds:

• Duke
• Michigan
• Arizona
• Florida

Iowa State, UConn, Houston, and Michigan State are projected as No. 2 seeds.