A Shift in Offensive Philosophy

Major League Baseball is experiencing a quiet but significant change in offensive approach. For years, the focus has been on the “three true outcomes” – walks, strikeouts, and home runs. However, a growing sentiment among players and team personnel suggests a desire for more balanced offensive production, moving away from the extremes of these outcomes. As one observer noted, From an offensive perspective, three outcomes all but assure a miserable result in a plate appearance: a strikeout, pop-up, or double play ball on the ground.

The Decline of the Strikeout

The 2025 MLB season marked the sixth consecutive year with over 40,000 strikeouts league-wide. However, it also represented a turning point, being just the third season since 2005 to see a decrease in the league-average strikeout rate. The rate dropped to 22.2% from records of 22.6% and 22.7% in the previous two years. This subtle shift isn’t solely due to rule changes; it’s a conscious effort by hitters to alter their approach.

Brendan Donovan: A Case Study in Contact

St. Louis Cardinals player Brendan Donovan embodies this new approach. He consistently avoids the unproductive outcomes that plague many hitters. His career strikeout rate of 13.5% is remarkably low, especially compared to the current MLB average. He also maintains a solid .282/.361/.411 batting line with a 119 wRC+, demonstrating his ability to contribute offensively beyond simply avoiding strikeouts.

Donovan’s skill extends beyond just making contact. He’s capable of turning well-located pitches into impactful hits, as evidenced by his ability to convert pitches into game-changing line drives.

Beyond Strikeouts: Pop-Ups and Double Plays

While strikeouts are receiving attention, pop-ups remain a relatively consistent, and largely unlamented, outcome. In 2025, infield pop-ups occurred on approximately 9.9% of fly balls, a rate that has remained stable since 2002. However, the most intriguing challenge for hitters like Donovan may be avoiding the ground ball double play. Despite his contact-oriented approach, Donovan has grounded into just 20 double plays in over 2,000 plate appearances since 2022, ranking among the league leaders in avoiding this outcome.

Donovan’s success isn’t just about avoiding negative outcomes; it’s about capitalizing on opportunities. With runners on base, his performance improves significantly, boasting a 136 wRC+ compared to 109 with the bases empty.

Donovan’s Fit in Seattle

Donovan’s versatility and offensive approach make him a valuable asset to any team. His potential fit with the Seattle Mariners, particularly as a leadoff hitter, is a positive development. His ability to consistently put the ball in play and avoid unproductive outs complements the team’s existing roster.