Australian GP, ​​the final rush begins between Bagnaia and Martin

With the Australian GP on 19-20 October, the 2024 MotoGP is entering its final rush. With four races to go, 10 points in the standings divide Jorge Martin (392) from Pecco Bagnaia (382): the smallest difference in the last thirty years in the premier class, as in 2020 between Quartararo and Mir, at the time only 13 GPs compared to the 20 rounds this year, double considering the Sprints on Saturday. With 148 points still up for grabs, a ten point lead is the small amount that Martin still maintains after Bagnaia’s one-two in the last race at Motegi. At Phillip Island, so far, of the top four in the current MotoGP ranking, neither Bagnaia, nor Martin, nor Bastianini have ever won. Pecco finished 2nd in 2023 and 3rd in 2022, 4th in 2021. Martin reached the podium, 2nd, only in Moto2, in 2019. Marquez has three MotoGP victories (the first in 2015), as well second place 2022.

technical and competitive challenge

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The main challenge remains the one between Martin and Bagnaia: only the two of them can compete for the world championship. A technical and competitive challenge, open and exciting, does honor to motorcycling and sport. And it cannot be ruled out that Bastianini (313 points) and Marc Marquez (311), still arithmetically capable of competing for the title, could influence, voluntarily or not, the final success of Jorge or Pecco. In this game, still long and not without surprises, Franco Morbidelli could also have a role, today on the Ducati GP24 and Martin’s teammate but in 2025 in Team VR46, Bagnaia’s “base” team, which in addition to being He was one of the very first riders to join the VR46 Riders Academy and still maintains a strong personal relationship with maestro Valentino Rossi, which is also significant on a technical-competitive level.

unknown time

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Then there is also the unknown of the weather, with possible rain and strong winds, in particular in the three races in Oceania and Asia one after the other: in Australia (Phillip Island), Thailand (Buriram), Malaysia ( Sepang), before the final in Valencia on 17 November. The question, at this point, is only one: what will be decisive for winning this world championship, will victories count more or mistakes more? Certainly, beyond the weather conditions, the handling of Martin and Bagnaia, their tactical intelligence in qualifying and in the race, and the technical skills of the two drivers relating to the set-up of their respective cars will be fundamental. These are far from simple details, crucial in making the difference on the track, especially on motorbikes of the same brand (Ducati) and with the same characteristics. If anything, the differences are between the Ducati GP24 and the GP23: translated onto the track, “only” a couple of tenths per lap, which however weighs heavily, as demonstrated by the finishing orders of each race and the general championship ranking. Difference, not so much or not only in terms of engine but in riding: especially when entering and cornering, where the 2023 Ducati is pushed by the new 2024 rear Michelin (tyre with greater grip), causing understeer and therefore widening the curve with problems closing the trajectory.

errors and surroundings

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So far, Martin and Bagnaia have made quite a few mistakes. However, both Jorge and Pecco were able to overcome the missteps. Both have the “same” Ducatis, only the colors and sponsors are different. Ducati leaders insist on saying that Bagnaia’s and Martin’s bikes are identical and that for the Borgo Panigale manufacturer there have been and will be no unequal treatment, much less favoritism: in any case a Ducati rider will win. Real. It is less realistic to think that it would be the same thing for Ducati to see the No. 1 on Martin’s bike (Aprilia) in 2025 and no longer on Bagnaia’s Rossa. It should also be added that “presenting” Bagnaia at the starting line of the 2025 season, reigning World Champion and three-time consecutive world champion in the premier class, would mean, for Ducati, further strengthening the “firepower of the team” through a further “injection” of awareness and psychological and competitive strength for the Piedmontese driver. Next year, Pecco will have Marc Marquez as his new teammate, who already in the current season is demonstrating all his potential and driving talent already aboard a GP23, with which he has so far achieved two successes in long races and one in the sprint race, however still virtually and mathematically in contention for the title.

technical-competitive analysis

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How will the two main antagonists fighting for the world championship, Bagnaia and Martin, present themselves at the Philip Island event? From a technical point of view, what transpires is that from this moment on, until Valencia, there will be no updates on the GP24s. The 2024 racing car from Borgo Panigale has already demonstrated its high technical quality. A minimal supremacy but one that can make the difference: supremacy not only in terms of power and quality and “availability” in engine delivery, but also in total synergy of the engine itself with the chassis and aerodynamic package. Therefore, every development carried out in this final phase of the championship will constitute the starting point for the future GP25, including the new chassis used for the first time by Bagnaia in the tests carried out in Misano immediately after the first race held at the beginning of September on the Romagna circuit . However, it will remain to be seen whether the World Champion will continue to use, as at Motegi, the new fairing configuration, which he already tested for the first time at Silverstone and initially “rejected”. This fairing, which generates greater downforce, making the bike more stable and balanced on fast speeds, was subsequently tested by Martin and Bastianini in the tests after Misano 1, and was then used, with excellent results, by Jorge and Enea starting from the Gran Emilia Romagna award, which saw the rider from Rimini win with a last-gasp overtaking against the Spaniard from the Pramac team. Finally, but not of little importance, there is the question of the “engine alarm”, that is, how many engines, of the eight granted by the regulation, remain available to the protagonist pilots. Six engines can still be used by Bagnaia: one of these has already been used on its debut in Japan, with the eighth to be unlocked in Sepang. Martin is better off as he still has seven engines at his disposal, six of which have already been used, the last one at Motegi, but not chosen for the two races in Japan. In the “poker of aces”, the one who is worse off is Marc Marquez who still only has four usable engines, all of which are used: the champion from Cervera will be able to use the last new engine in Malaysia, as required by the regulations which allows the use of the eighth engine only after the 18th GP. Six engines can be used by Bastianini: five already widely used, one used only in Indonesia, to which must be added the “new” one available from Sepang in view of the closing of the world championship in Valencia. What matters is the track, what will happen there, starting from the next race. All eyes are on Martin and Bagnaia, expected since Phillip Island not in a race “between accountants” but in one of the toughest and most exhilarating matches ever. This is how history is made. This is how you enter the legend.