St. Louis Blues’ Remarkable Turnaround: From Near-Playoff Miss to Contender Status

The St. Louis Blues’ recent performance defies expectations, transforming them from a team struggling to secure a playoff berth into a legitimate contender. Just four months ago, their odds of making the postseason were a dismal 1.1%, a figure that seemed almost insurmountable. But through an improbable surge, they’ve not only achieved the impossible but have dramatically elevated their chances, generating a palpable buzz around the NHL.

Entering the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the Blues sat eight points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand. A projected 123-point pace—approximately 11 points per game—was required to match Vancouver’s 94-point mark. Yet, as many of us predicted, and as now confirmed, they did it. This isn’t just a good season; it’s one of the most incredible turnarounds witnessed in the sport.

Let’s set the stage: the 1.1% odds. It’s a staggering number, reflecting the considerable challenges facing the team. But their subsequent 18-3-2 performance since that break, coupled with a 13-2-1 record without stalwart defenseman Colton Parayko, paints a vastly different picture.

The Impossible Became Reality

The Blues’ turnaround wasn’t merely a flash in the pan. Their recent pace projects to a staggering 110-point season, a feat many considered unattainable just weeks ago. To truly appreciate the magnitude of this success, consider that finishing at 90 points—surpassing the Flames and Canucks—would still leave them a precarious three points shy of a playoff spot. They had to be relentlessly perfect, and they largely were.

“It’s one of the most incredible turnarounds I’ve witnessed in this sport,” an anonymous source stated. “You’re talking about a team that was deeply entrenched in a hole, playing with a significant deficit, and completely reversing that script.”

Jim Montgomery’s Impact: A Strategic Shift

Early on, the Blues seemed to be stumbling under the weight of unfulfilled potential. However, writing as early as January—as detailed with colleague Jeremy Rutherford—I noted a promising trend: a measurable improvement in the team’s underlying statistics under Jim Montgomery’s guidance.

Montgomery’s ability to unlock the team’s full potential isn’t just about tweaking line combinations; it’s a fundamental shift in philosophy. The Blues’ xG (expected goals) has jumped to a league-leading 51.2%, accompanied by an impressive 59.3% goals percentage. This transformation, mirroring Montgomery’s success with the Bruins – leading them to a 60.5% xG rate from 2022 to 2024 – points to a strategic approach that’s undeniably working.

Robert Thomas: A Statistical Revelation

Central to this remarkable resurgence is Robert Thomas. His performance since the 4 Nations break has been nothing short of phenomenal. In 23 games, he’s amassed an astounding 34 points, largely fueled by a staggering 27 assists. His average Game Score of 1.79—the fourth-best in the league—demonstrates his consistent impact on the game. He’s not just contributing; he’s driving the Blues’ offense.

Thomas’ season is now pacing for a breathtaking 93 points and a plus-15.3 Net Rating, franchise-caliber numbers. This significant leap—a potential 8-goal improvement— is a key element in revitalizing St. Louis’s playoff aspirations.

Addressing the Challenges & Unsung Heroes

It’s crucial to acknowledge the context. The Blues weren’t simply “lucky.” Montgomery and his coaching staff fostered a more cohesive and disciplined team. However, the impact of departures – notably Parayko – cannot be understated. The 13-2-1 record without him is a testament to the team’s resilience and the adjustments they’ve made.

Furthermore, the Oilers’ struggles without McDavid and Draisaitl offer a valuable data point. Edmonton’s performance without its top two stars highlights the importance of overall team depth and execution, leveraging their full potential without the benefit of that significant scoring boost.

Looking Ahead: A Resurgent Blues Team

Before the season, questions lingered regarding the Blues’ offensive ceiling. Now, with Montgomery at the helm and Thomas leading the charge, those concerns have largely dissipated. The core is operating at its peak, demonstrating a level of consistency and performance previously unseen. That’s why the return of a fierce, dominant Blues team should no longer be considered an outlier. They no longer look like an unlikely contender; they look like a team capable of challenging for playoff supremacy.

16 Stats – Deep Dive

• 1. Holloway & Broberg’s Offer Sheets: A masterclass in scouting, resulting in two impactful additions.
• 2. Oilers Without McDavid & Draisaitl: A stark reminder of the importance of overall team depth.
• 3. Kuemper’s Revival: A powerful resurgence that is a key to their playoff push.
• 4. MacKenzie Weegar’s Defensive Impact: A remarkable improvement that helped buy time for the team.
• 5. Ducklings Emergence: A huge, promising sign for Anaheim’s future.
• 6. Hughes’ Struggles: A lack of health has undermined his performance.
• 7. The Rod Langway Award: A measure of defensive leadership and consistency.
• 8. Home-Ice Advantage: The importance of home-field support during the playoffs.

Call to Action: What do you think will be the St. Louis Blues’ biggest obstacle if they make the playoffs? Share your thoughts in the comments below!

—Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick & Hockey Stat Cards