March Madness: The Rarest Upset in College Basketball
Since the NCAA tournament expanded its field in 1985, No. 1 seeds have historically dominated No. 16 seeds. But, a select few 16-seeds have defied the odds, etching their names into March Madness lore.
The First Two 16-1 Upsets
In 2018, UMBC became the first No. 16 seed ever to upset a No. 1 seed
when the Retrievers defeated Virginia and became an overnight sensation. In 2023, FDU became just the second No. 16 seed to knock off a No. 1, shocking Purdue.
These victories represent the pinnacle of upset potential in college basketball.
Historical Dominance of No. 1 Seeds
- Top seeds own a 158-2 all-time record against 16 seeds.
- The 2023 FDU vs. Purdue game was only the second time a 16-seed prevailed.
- 16 seeds have a 1.25% winning percentage against 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
- No game between a 1 and 16 seed has been decided by one possession since 1996 (Purdue beat Western Carolina, 73-71).
Close Calls: When 16 Seeds Nearly Triumphed
While only two 16-seeds have won, several games have been incredibly close. A 16 seed has come within one point of a top seed twice, both in the 1989 NCAA tournament.
March Madness Seed History: How Has No. 1 Fared vs No. 16? – Sports.yahoo.com
Before the UMBC upset of Virginia, the closest call in March Madness history came in 1989. Princeton lost to top-seeded Georgetown by just a point, 50-49.
Oklahoma also narrowly defeated ETSU 72-71 in 1989, after ETSU led by 17 points. Other near misses include Murray State losing to Michigan State in overtime in 1990 and Arizona defeating Weber State 68-59 in 2014 by only nine points.
Duke Survives Scare in 2026
In 2026, Siena gave Duke a significant challenge. The Blue Devils is the first-ever 1-seed to trail a 16-seed by double-digits at halftime in NCAA tournament history.
Duke ultimately rallied to win, but the first half demonstrated the potential for a major upset.
How FDU Shocked Purdue
The 2023 matchup between No. 1 seed Purdue, and No. 16 FDU appeared to be a foregone conclusion. However, FDU defied expectations.
History of 1 seed vs. 16 seed in March Madness – NCAA.com
The Knights held their own, nursing a narrow lead for much of the game. The plan was not to stop the towering Edey as much as it was to nullify the rest of the Purdue offense. FDU did just that, forcing several errant shots and limiting the Boilermakers to just 36% shooting from the field in the 63-58 win.
UMBC’s 2018 victory over Virginia was even more decisive, with the Retrievers winning 74-54 and controlling the game for the majority of the contest.
16-Over-2 Upsets: A More Common Occurrence
While 16-over-1 upsets are rare, 15-over-2 upsets occur more frequently. There have been 11 instances of a No. 15 seed defeating a No. 2 seed, including three consecutive seasons from 2021-2023.
| YEAR | RESULT | SCORE |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | Richmond def. Syracuse | 73-69 |
| 1993 | Santa Clara def. Arizona | 64-61 |
| 1997 | Coppin State def. South Carolina | 78-65 |
| 2001 | Hampton def. Iowa State | 58-57 |
| 2012 | Lehigh def. Duke | 75-70 |
| 2012 | Norfolk State def. Missouri | 86-84 |
| 2013 | Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown | 78-68 |
| 2016 | Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State | 90-81 |
| 2021 | Oral Roberts def. Ohio State | 75-72 |
| 2022 | Saint Peter’s def. Kentucky | 85-79 |
| 2023 | Princeton def. Arizona | 59-55 |
There have also been 23 14-seed over 3-seed upsets, further illustrating the relative rarity of a 16-seed winning.
FAQ
How many times has a 16-seed beaten a 1-seed in March Madness?
Only twice: UMBC defeated Virginia in 2018, and Fairleigh Dickinson defeated Purdue in 2023.
What is the all-time record of 1-seeds versus 16-seeds?
1-seeds have a record of 158-2 against 16-seeds.
Has a 16-seed ever come close to beating a 1-seed?
Yes, several times. Georgetown beat Princeton by only one point in 1989, and Oklahoma narrowly defeated ETSU in the same year.
March Madness is known for its unpredictability, but the 16-over-1 upset remains the most elusive and celebrated outcome in college basketball.